Timothée Chalamet is not going through his best media streak. At the beginning of the 2026 awards season, the actor was one of the favorites in the Oscar predictions, which will be held this Sunday, March 15 at the emblematic Dolby Theater in Los Angeles.
Chalamet aspires to win the Best Actor statuette for Marty Supreme. Here he plays Marty Mauser, an ambitious ping-pong player trying to make it in the competitive world of professional table tennis. Everything indicated that the young actor could stand out after having lost the opportunity to win the Oscar in previous years against Gary Oldman in 2018 and Adrien Brody in 2025.
However, to his discreet presence at the awards ceremonies was added the scandal surrounding the director of Marty SupremeJosh Safdie, accused of having an underage actress filmed in a sexual scene with a non-professional actor during the filming of Good Time in 2017. In addition, criticism of Chalamet has intensified for his comments in a recent interview, where he stated that ballet and opera “didn’t matter to anyone.”
The actor’s words have generated great controversy inside and outside of Hollywood, causing him a reaction that is difficult to face. However, this should not affect his career at the Oscars, since voting ended before the controversy arose, on December 12.
Can Timothée Chalamet lose the Oscar? The role for and against reputation in Hollywood
“If the question is whether he can lose it, then no, because the controversy arose after the Academy voting closed. Can he win it? Yes or no, it is being an awards season with little foresight, at least in the men’s categories. Chalamet’s is a minor controversy that, in a certain way, has also had a positive effect on the world of culture,” journalist specialized in cinema Javier Rodrigo Saavedra explains to EL PAÍS.
A striking aspect is how the criticism of Chalamet has been much more mediated than the controversy surrounding Safdie. “People are putting the focus on Chalamet, when in reality they should be focusing on Josh Safdie. The first smear campaign perhaps affected the entire film ahead of the awards, since it did coincide with the voting period. Zoe Saldaña was not harmed by Emilia Pérez’s campaign, although she had just won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and SAG, a collection in which Chalamet only has the BAFTA,” adds Rodrigo Saavedra, comparing with the reputational crisis that affected Karla Sofía Gascón at the 2025 Oscars.
What seems clear among experts is that, although a reputation crisis can influence the Oscar race, two factors influence it even more: the magnitude of the campaign and the position of the actor or actress in the sector.
“The film industry is very much based on a person’s reputation. Hollywood, at the end of the day, is interested in making money, and if Timothée generates income with Dune…”, the emerging film producer Arnold Lozada explains to EL PAÍS. “What can determine a crisis or the obtaining of an award is also the circumstance that Hollywood is experiencing. They want to continue making money, and people are no longer interested in prizes like before. Academics may even be interested in these controversies because it gives them more visibility. In addition, Timothée is now with Kylie Jenner, which gives him more visibility to people who may not even follow movies,” adds Lozada.
“Will it hurt him? (To Timothée) No. No one will remember this when the next Oscar awards are distributed, win or lose. After all, Timothée is already part of the Kardashian clan, perhaps the best teachers of reputational crises of the 21st century. Karla Sofía Gascón was able to overcome it, with a much more aggressive campaign; and although it does not seem that she has plans in the United States anytime soon, the Spanish and part of the international public already values her talent, and it is quite a claim, not to say an icon. So, why wouldn’t Chalamet do better?” Rodrigo Saavedra says.
In this sense, the investment and positioning of film campaigns for the Oscars are of great importance. “Maybe the millions from the campaigns for your consideration outweigh the cancelable comments,” screenwriter Guillermo Guzmán explains to EL PAÍS. “Regarding Timothée, surely the young actor realized the mistake he made as soon as he left the interview and regretted it. We have seen in previous years how scandals like Will Smith’s or Karla Sofía Gascón’s comments have been decisive, and this was a great opportunity for Timothée,” he adds.
The case of Karla Sofía Gascón is especially remembered for how her reputation crisis affected her Oscar campaign for Emilia Pérez, since the actress could not walk the red carpet like the rest of the professionals.
“Karla Sofía Gascón was an actress who also came from outside of Hollywood, a trans woman… she had every chance of being more vulnerable to cancellation. This affected the Academy’s campaign, which also continues in the fight to bring greater diversity,” explains Lozada.
Another issue that may go beyond controversy is the element of age, which historically has never worked in Timotheé’s favor. “What Chalamet has always had against him is age. It is difficult to win the Oscar for Best Actor under 30 years old. In the case of actresses it is different, but Mikey Madison was already canceled a little last year because of that,” adds the producer.
Main predictions for the Oscars 2026
In the betting houses, Michael B. Jordan and his role in Sinners have gained prominence in recent weeks, reaching 50%, while Timothée has been dropping to 30%. A positioning with which experts agree. Regarding the bets on Leonardo DiCaprio, Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke are very minority (>6%).
In the Best Actress category, Jessie Buckley’s candidacy is the strongest, with 97% in betting houses, and she is also the favorite of the specialized press. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) y Amy Madigan (Weapons) are the favorites in the cast categories. KPop Demon Hunters leads in animation and original song (Golden), while Frankenstein masters production design, costumes and makeup.
Paul Thomas Anderson is the favorite for Best Director. One Battle After Another It is presented as the great favorite of the night, standing out in direction, editing and cinematography. Other projected winners include Mr. Nobody Against Putin (documentary) and Sentimental Value (best international film). Sinners It also competes strongly in Best Original Screenplay and Casting Direction. Regarding sound, F1 He could surprise by taking the statuette.