Against the backdrop of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced increasing pressure from an increasingly frustrated Israeli public.
Israelis are beginning to recognize the limits of military power, as top government officials appear to be compromising on the idea that Israel can impose its agenda on the region through brute force.
In October alone, at least 88 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, Lebanon and inside the so-called Green Line – one of the highest death tolls since the genocide began – along with six other Israeli civilians.
New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch
Sign up for the latest information and analysis
Israel-Palestine, Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters
While Israel can wreak massive havoc in the Arab region, its war with Hezbollah has served as a reminder that even non-state military actors can paralyze and shut down a significant portion of a country.
Almost a million Israelis in the northern fire were forced to leave their homes, and the settlements in the south were also largely abandoned. Even now, the ceasefire with Hezbollah has not managed to restore a sense of security in the north.
For the first time since the beginning of the Gaza genocide, the protests in Tel Aviv demanded not only the return of Israeli prisoners, but also an end to the war.
Despite unwavering support from the world’s leading superpower, Israel ultimately failed to dictate the terms of the ceasefire to reflect its narrative of “total victory” in which Hezbollah would be disarmed and Lebanon would capitulate to its demands.
Most importantly, the IDF has realized that it cannot achieve military victory over Hezbollah, just as it could not in the past and even less so now. Without a political solution, it would have led to years of fighting and entanglement in the Lebanese quagmire.
Still, interest in a ceasefire serves Netanyahu’s attempt to suppress internal discontent. It comes just days after the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Meanwhile, Hamas announced the death of an Israeli prisoner in northern Gaza, and a missing Israeli rabbi was reported dead in Dubai.
The scandal surrounding the leaking of classified material from the prime minister’s office, known in Israel as “Bibileaks”, has drawn widespread criticism and an investigation by the country’s security authorities.
The cease-fire was also announced because of difficulties in passing laws that justified the exemption of certain groups from military service, and a feeling in Israeli society that Israel had given up on rescuing its hostages.
Follow Middle East Eye live coverage for the latest information on the Israeli-Palestinian war
Even as Israeli leaders seek to shift their focus back to Gaza, the past 14 months have shown that Israel does not have the military and intelligence capabilities to recapture the prisoners without a deal with Hamas.
Netanyahu also failed to achieve his public goal of capturing Gaza at the expense of achieving a “hostage deal.”
In light of these events, protests broke out in Tel Aviv for the first time since the beginning of the Gaza genocide, not only demanding the return of Israeli prisoners – the previously popular slogan was “Bring them back and go back (to Gaza). )”, but also demanding an end to the war.
Shocking reality
Barely two months after the war in Lebanon, the initial euphoria of Israeli society about the strategy of blowing up war crimes that led to civilian casualties has turned into the shocking reality that Israel is neither a global nor a regional superpower.
Despite the losses and destruction, Hezbollah has not lost the war
Read more »
Despite the siege, starvation, bombing and untold destruction of Gaza, Israel has failed to achieve its stated war aims – neither resolving the “hostage crisis” nor disbanding Hamas.
Israel’s parliament voted Tuesday in favor of a ceasefire with Hezbollah, which remains a military and political power.
Even worse, new military threats are emerging from Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Moreover, despite the fact that they target Netanyahu and Gallant, the wider effects of the arrest warrants issued by The Hague are felt on two fronts: first, Israeli generals have begun to understand the personal risks posed by international arrest warrants that may affect their position. with Western countries, military cooperation, arms trade and intelligence sharing.
Unlike Israel’s top leaders, these generals do not necessarily enjoy the same level of state protection or immunity.
Second, Israel’s wider public has realized the potential consequences of the nation’s international status, which could lead to sanctions and boycotts against Israeli individuals and companies.
But perhaps Israel’s most enduring challenge remains Gaza.
Israel has extensive experience in direct occupation – in Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon.
However, unlike the territories it conquered in 1948, when the world tolerated the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians inside the Green Line, the post-1967 dynamic has changed.
Palestinians, along with neighboring Arab countries, have since internalized that leaving their homes means permanent displacement and that any notion of a “temporary” Israeli occupation is delusional.
Grassroots and military resistance movements emerged from these occupied territories, demanding a heavy military toll on Israel.
Although Israel has not officially announced plans to accept the “Generals’ Plan” to reoccupy Gaza, the massive infrastructure investment in northern Gaza suggests that this could be an indirect goal of the war.
The possibilities of establishing settlements in Gaza loom large, which could mean the return of caravans and the first settlement there.
Such developments are causing more and more reservists – many of whom have been fighting for 14 months – to realize that the war may never end. If Gaza is reoccupied, resistance will continue and intensify, requiring continued military action.
This would require sacrifices far beyond what was promised at the start of the war, including economic livelihoods, educational efforts, and personal security – all to serve the goals of the messianic right-wing agenda that plunges Israeli society into perpetual war without political horizons.
A deepening division
In the midst of these mounting crises, Netanyahu has decided to wage war on all fronts, including against Israel’s own security system.
His attempts to avoid accountability and push through apartheid legislation to disenfranchise Arab Knesset members, as well as his efforts to weaken the judiciary and exacerbate internal tensions over Israel’s national identity, tend to weaken the political opposition.
Ultimately, Israeli society must consider the costs of uncritical obedience and disregard for international law and human life.
But they have only deepened the divisions in Israeli society.
For example, Netanyahu’s sidelining of Gallant — a former army chief of staff — while promoting his staunch ally, Israel Katz, who has no military credentials, has drawn sharp criticism.
Katz’s recent reversal of administrative detentions against Israeli settlers in the West Bank, against the recommendations of the Israeli security apparatus, has only fueled fears of increased terrorism by extremist settlers in the West Bank.
As these challenges intensify, Netanyahu’s actions send a troubling message to Israeli society: their situation is dire and the media bubble they’ve been living in is starting to burst.
Although Netanyahu’s manipulative reputation is well known in Israeli political culture, the public nevertheless followed him into the Gaza genocide with the expectation that things would somehow work out. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will.
Ultimately, Israeli society must consider the costs of uncritical obedience and disregard for international law and human life.
By the time the full scope of the destruction in Gaza sinks in, with more than 44,000 Palestinians dead, 70 percent of them children and women, it may be too late.
Some Israelis will regret their actions, some will deny and others will justify them – but the collective consequences of this destruction will last, and it will be too late.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.